Can Fukushima Cause a Turko-Armenian Rapprochement?

Fukushima nuclear power plant (NPP) can produce the wind pretty much needed for Turco-Armenian rapprochement. Earthquake in Japan and following tsunami caused severe incidents. Among them, the nuclear melt-down risk in the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant is one that may have world-wide effects and one of those effects can be creation of the needed wind to push forward Turco-Armenian relations by building confidence over the similar risky status of the only NPP in Armenia, Metsamor. Metsamor NPP was built in 1979 and was closed after 1988 earthquake in Armenia. However, after fall of the Soviet Union, on the following years of Azeri-Armenian War on Karabakh, it was re-commissioned by Yerevan in 1995, to meet increasing energy demand. Metsamor NPP, uses the first generation technology and is called as “the oldest and the least secure” NPP among the existing NPPs, by the European Union (EU). It is just more or less 20 kilometres away from the Turco-Armenian border and does face with serious financial problems even in re-fuelling. Under such conditions, of course it cannot be expected that Armenia will take necessary security measures; there is a vital risk for the whole region, risk to facing with a Chernobyl-like disaster. At this very point, this unlucky and risky situation of Metsamor provides a chance to Turks and Armenians. At present, security in NPPs is the hot topic of the week and is likely to be of the month. Ankara should use this wind smartly and take one step forward toward Yerevan. A deal on Metsamor’s security can enable the parties to deepen the dialogue; besides, the both parties can gain a lot from this cooperation.

First, Turkey can help Armenia in finding loans and form a consortium to shoulder the burden mutually, for the sake of regional security and stability. According to a prediction, a new NPP will cost approximately $5billion. It is totally inconceivable for Armenia to achieve such a big investment. Maybe Turkey can play a primary role in forming a tripartite or quadripartite enterprise in which Armenia, Turkey, the EU and the US have shares, to make investment and generate electricity for Armenian economy by using reliable, sustainable, clean and less dangerous resources. Russia can be included in the new project to maintain the regional balance too. Thus, all the major actors (Washington, Brussels and Moscow) will be included in the investment with regional parties Yerevan and Ankara. The Minsk Group can also be a roof for the negotiations. Under the consortium (or the Minsk Group), profits can be re-invested to the region and this can develop the necessary infrastructure for re-opening of the common border.

Secondly, establishment of a consortium (or at least developing a common plan for the future of Metsamor) may bring pretty much needed political and social linkages in a deepened way. What is needed in the Turco-Armenian relations is mutual understanding and confidence. During the negotiations, an interaction between the parties is inevitable; this will be the key for better understanding. If parties can build confidence during the technical and economic negotiations, this may spread to other areas from the issues being agreed on. Because the main obstacle for Turkish government and its Armenian counterpart is public opposition to any agreement made with the opposite side, this obstacle will be eliminated through the political and social rapprochement. Plus, as peculiar to Turkey, Azerbaijan’s opposition is significant; but, even Azerbaijan may support a solution to risky situation of Metsamor. Within the framework of good neighbourhood and mutual understanding, parties may take one step further. The objective can be accomplished under the label “Atoms For Confidence”, like the US president Eisenhower’s famous speech “Atoms For Peace”. There is a possibility and hope for this.

Even if the parties cannot build confidence and move to other fields like debates over 1915 events or future of the common border, there will remain one, concrete achievement: Removal of the nuclear disaster risk. The wind is just behind this initiative. All the countries are debating about risks of the nuclear energy and some countries have already decided to suspend their investments even. For example, Germany has just decided to speed up nuclear energy exit. Perhaps, public opposition to nuclear energy will bring more awareness about the topic. This may enable Turkish and Armenian governments to take steps towards each other much more easily by exploiting the dangerous situation of Metsamor NPP, without facing less harsh public oppositions. There is nothing to lose for parties; yet the chances are a lot for them to win mutually. The international arena will appreciate this, too. In brief, the destructive tsunami can be used as a constructive wave in the South Caucasus to build confidence among parties and to remove a nuclear disaster risk.

Originally on: E-International Relations